OP ED: Obama: Looking good while losing.

The Democrats and the Barack Obama team should know better, but I am thrilled that they do not. They appear to operating under the assumption that they on the verge of a tsunami-level election victory.

The liberal pundits and radio gabbers are orgasmic in their political fantasy of the post-GOP world. Everyday, they wax on and on about the misfortunes of John McCain and his doomed quest. They mock his age. They make fun of his physical handicaps. They brutally lambaste his wife. (Tsk! Tsk! Where is their political correctness now?) They speak with certainty that Obama WILL be the next occupant of the oval office.

They cite polls that show Obama far ahead in all kinds of esoteric comparisons. Likeability. Good for education. More trusted with the economy. They are bewildered, however, by head-to-head polls that keep McCain within the margin of error – and certain that these samplings of public opinion are merely lagging indicators of a future victory.

No doubt Obama is riding a crest of positive exposure. He is the charismatic barnstormer – appropriately dubbed the “rock star” candidate. The ever-biased media has lost their last measure of professional dignity in their zeal to put Obama in the White House. The press has become so imbalanced in their reporting, in both coverage and slant, that even editorialists, columnists and commentators of all hues are chastising their newsroom colleagues.

How can Obama possibly lose, the progressives rhetorically ask?

Easy. This ain’t November.

First and foremost, Obama would have to overcome the enormously significant reality of a very racially divided electorate. (Shhh! We're not supposed to talk about this). His parochial message that is likely to garner him more than 80 percent of the black vote is naturally going to create a racial backlash in the white community. We can argue about the extend of its impact, but not its existence.

While liberals charge “racism,” it is not racism to vote against a candidate who appears to represent the narrow interest of a group of which one is not a member. But, forget the academics. The reality is that Obama is not producing the kind of showing in the non-African-American communities he needs to win the election. This does not take into account the "Bradley Effect," which basically suggests that a lot fewer whites will vote black than the polls indicate. Why? First, becasue early polls are almost never right. Second, because a significant number of those interviewed do not like to say they are voting agains the black guy -- they lie. This is especially true if the interviewer is black, or sounds black.

Liberals like to think that all designated minorities are part of a unified progressive bloc. In reality, Obama has a problem with Hispanics. Even if he gets a better share, their numbers in the voting booth are not that great. Obama has no universal appeal to Asians, who will again show a high degree of independency in their voting patterns. He will not do as well as a Democrat should with Jews -- all his talk about protecting Israel notwithstanding.

These and other reasons explain why all the hoopla is not letting Obama break away from McCain. I would think Obama needs a good 10 to 15 point lead today to even be in the running in November. If he is in a dead heat now, how can he win when his fortunes begin to descend -- as they surely will. Okay! Yeah, he will get a short term boost after the convention, but then it is all down hill.

For the most part, the events and impressions of today will not mean much to the all important undecided voters. It is the post-convention period that is critical in shaping opinions that will finally result in a voting decision. In other words, Obama is having a hot run of great publicity when it doesn’t mean much. Conversely, McCain is being beaten down before it matters. He will have ample time to shore up his exposed weak points.

McCain has a future advantage. To some measure, the press will recognize enough guilt to start balancing off their coverage. McCain will get more and better reporting. Also, the public tends to get tired of unending “over the fold” coverage of one candidate. They will be more sympathetic and response to the future McCain messages. Too much exposure leads to a backlash. It would be hard to argue that Obama is not overexposed at this point.

Outside of a few terse retorts, Obama have not been subjected to the issue debate. The fact is, Obama is much more liberal than the American public. He is counting on novelty, charisma and lkeability to trump the issues disparity. The Republicans are withholding their fusalage of counter advertising for a more critical time. Once the battle is engaged, Obama is going to see his numbers slipping.

The junior senator from Illinois, and his supporters seem to want to win the election every day. Listening to the liberal (hot) Air America, it is astonishing how they analyze every daily event and opinion poll as if they are doing Election Day coverage -- and always projecting Obama as the winner. The GOP national establishment, for all its faults, is better at strategy – recognizing that there is only one day when winning matters.

As I often disclaim. The course events can change in the face of dramatic disclosures or blunders. The Republicans are more susceptible to making such blunders, and theirs are more likely to be amplified by the media. But for now, this race remains McCain’s to lose.


Footnote: Oh! The picture of Obama. Yeah! It has been a while since I used one of him smoking. Just using it in the spirit of full disclosure. There has not been a better kept presidential secret since the public had no idea Franklin Roosevelt was wheelchair-bound. And yes, the McCain photo is among his best. Since he has been getting beat up so badly in the press these days, I thought I would put the thumb on his side of the scale for a change.